The access to COVID-19 vaccines on the global scale has been drastically impacted by structural socio-economic inequalities, resulting in the fact that most COVID-19 vaccines have been used in high and upper middle income countries. Here, we develop a data-driven age-stratified epidemic model to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 vaccine inequalities in eight low and middle income countries sampled from all regions of the world. The model accounts for vaccination data, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the introduction of more transmissible strains. The modeling approach allows us the exploration of counterfactual scenarios where we either apply vaccination rates observed in high income countries or anticipate the rollout starting dates to match those of high income countries. We estimate that more than 50%, with peaks of 80%, of deaths would have been averted with respect to the actual vaccine allocation and distribution occurred in the analyzed countries. Overall, our results quantify the negative impacts of vaccines inequalities and call for the multiplication of global efforts to provide better access and support to COVID-19 vaccines in low and middle income countries.‍

View Report
COVID-19 Vaccine inequality

A) Total number of doses administered per 100 people in different income groups as of December 1st, 2021.

B) Scatter plot of percentage of fully vaccinated versus Human Development Index (HDI) of different countries. The color of dots indicates the income group while size it is proportional to the cost of vaccinating 40% of the population expressed as percentage of current healthcare spending.

C) Density plot of date of first COVID-19 vaccination across different income groups.

D) Evolution in time of share of vaccines administered monthly among income groups.
scenario
definitions
round 6

United states Scenario PROJECTIONS

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

SCENARIO projections by state

Select a state:
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennslyvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

ALABAMA

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Alaska

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

wisconsin

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

wyoming

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

ARIZONA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

arkansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

california

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

colorado

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

connecticut

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

delaware

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

district of columbia

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

florida

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

georgia

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

hawaii

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

idaho

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

illinois

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

indiana

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

iowa

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

kansas

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

kentucky

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

louisiana

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

maine

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

maryland

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

massachusetts

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

michigan

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

minnesota

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

mississippi

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

missouri

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

montana

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

nebraska

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

nevada

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

new hampshire

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

New Jersey

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

New mexico

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

New york

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

North carolina

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

north dakota

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

ohio

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

oklahoma

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Oregon

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Pennsylvania

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

rhode island

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

South Carolina

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

south Dakota

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Tennessee

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

texas

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Utah

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Vermont

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Virginia

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

washington

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

west virginia

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

ARIZONA

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

ARKANSAS

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR
scenario
definitions
ROUND 4

United states Scenario PROJECTIONS

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Low NPI

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Low NPI

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR

SCENARIO projections by state

Select a state:
Alabama
Alaska
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennslyvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

ALABAMA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Alaska

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

ARIZONA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

arkansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

california

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

colorado

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

connecticut

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

delaware

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

district of columbia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

florida

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

georgia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

hawaii

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

idaho

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

illinois

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

indiana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

iowa

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

kansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

kentucky

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

louisiana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

maine

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

maryland

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

massachusetts

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

michigan

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

minnesota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

mississippi

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

missouri

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

montana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

nebraska

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

nevada

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

new hampshire

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

New Jersey

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

New mexico

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
low NPI

Scenario C
low vaccination
moderate NPI

Scenario D
low vaccination
low NPI

New york

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

North carolina

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

north dakota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

ohio

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

oklahoma

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Oregon

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Pennsylvania

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

rhode island

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

South Carolina

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

south Dakota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Tennessee

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

texas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Utah

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Vermont

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Virginia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

washington

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

west virginia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

wisconsin

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

wyoming

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR
scenario
definitions
ROUND 4

United states Scenario PROJECTIONS

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
‍Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR

SCENARIO projections by state

Select a state:
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennslyvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

ALABAMA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Alaska

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

wyoming

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

ARIZONA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

arkansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

california

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

colorado

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

connecticut

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

delaware

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

district of columbia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

florida

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

georgia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

hawaii

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

idaho

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

illinois

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

indiana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

iowa

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

kansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

kentucky

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

louisiana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

maine

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

maryland

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

massachusetts

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

michigan

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

minnesota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

mississippi

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

missouri

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

montana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

nebraska

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

nevada

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

new hampshire

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

New Jersey

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

New mexico

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
low NPI

Scenario C
low vaccination
moderate NPI

Scenario D
low vaccination
low NPI

New york

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

North carolina

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

north dakota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

ohio

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

oklahoma

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Oregon

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Pennsylvania

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

rhode island

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

South Carolina

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

south Dakota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Tennessee

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

texas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Utah

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Vermont

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Virginia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

washington

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

west virginia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

wisconsin

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

arizona

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR
scenario
definitions
round 5

United states Scenario PROJECTIONS

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
‍Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

SCENARIO projections by state

Select a state:
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennslyvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

ALABAMA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Alaska

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

maine

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

wyoming

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

ARIZONA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

arkansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

california

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

colorado

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

connecticut

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

delaware

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

district of columbia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

florida

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

georgia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

hawaii

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

idaho

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

illinois

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

indiana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

iowa

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

kansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

kentucky

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

louisiana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

wisconsin

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

maryland

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Arizona

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

michigan

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

minnesota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

mississippi

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

missouri

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

montana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

nebraska

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

nevada

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

new hampshire

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

New Jersey

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

New mexico

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

New york

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

North carolina

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

north dakota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

ohio

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

oklahoma

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Oregon

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Pennsylvania

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

rhode island

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

South Carolina

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

south Dakota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Tennessee

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

texas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Utah

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Vermont

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Virginia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

washington

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

west virginia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

massachusetts

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

ARKANSAS

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR
scenario
definitions
round 8

United states Scenario PROJECTIONS

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

SCENARIO projections by state

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennslyvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

ALABAMA

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Alaska

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

wisconsin

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

wyoming

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

ARIZONA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

arkansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

california

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

colorado

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

connecticut

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

delaware

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

district of columbia

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

florida

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

georgia

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

hawaii

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

idaho

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

illinois

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

indiana

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

iowa

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

kansas

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

kentucky

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

louisiana

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

maine

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

maryland

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

massachusetts

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

michigan

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

minnesota

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

mississippi

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

missouri

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

montana

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

nebraska

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

nevada

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

new hampshire

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

New Jersey

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

New mexico

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

New york

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

North carolina

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

north dakota

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

ohio

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

oklahoma

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Oregon

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Pennsylvania

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

rhode island

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

South Carolina

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

south Dakota

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Tennessee

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

texas

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Utah

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Vermont

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Virginia

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

washington

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

west virginia

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

ARIZONA

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

ARKANSAS

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR

Acknowledgements

This work was partially supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (award number INV006010). We acknowledge support from Google Cloud and Google Cloud Research Credits program. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors. All authors thank the High Performance Computing facilities at Greenwich University. N.G. acknowledges support from the Doctoral Training Alliance.