Modeling the 2022-23 Influenza season

The Flu Scenario Modeling Hub is an extension of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub. Currently, the Flu-SMH has produced 3 rounds that provide long-term, at least 6-months, projections of the current flu season in the United States. The scenario projections include estimates of the peak time, peak magnitude, and the weekly number of hospital admissions. The scenarios assume varying levels of vaccine efficacy and population immunity. Similar to the COVID-19 SMH, the Flu-SMH provides results based on ensembling the models from different teams.

Here we report the specific results of our modeling approach. The projections in this study are intended to bound plausible outbreak trajectories and should not be considered as forecasts of the most likely outcome. Considerable uncertainty is inherent when modeling the trajectory of COVID-19 over long timeframes because of deviations that may or may not be captured by the different scenarios (e.g., vaccine hesitancy, change human behavior).

Scenario Definitions

Scenarios defined as of December 5, 2022 | Model projecting from Epiweek 2022-49 to Epiweek 2023-22

Weekly Hospitalization Incidence (per 100K): Week 2023-10

HOSPITALIZATIONS PEAK SIZE (per 100K)

Week of peak Hospitalizations

SCENARIO projections by state

Select a state:

ARIZONA

ALABAMA

Alaska

wisconsin

wyoming

ARIZONA

arkansas

scenario a
High VE
Optimistic Prior Immunity

Scenario B
High VE
Pessimistic Prior Immunity

Scenario C
Low VE
Optimistic Prior Immunity

Scenario D
Low VE
Pessimistic Prior Immunity

california

colorado

connecticut

delaware

district of columbia

florida

georgia

hawaii

idaho

illinois

indiana

iowa

kansas

kentucky

louisiana

maine

maryland

massachusetts

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR

michigan

minnesota

mississippi

missouri

montana

nebraska

nevada

new hampshire

New Jersey

New mexico

New york

North carolina

north dakota

ohio

oklahoma

Oregon

Pennsylvania

rhode island

South Carolina

south Dakota

Tennessee

texas

Utah

Vermont

Virginia

washington

west virginia

ARKANSAS

United states

scenario
definitions
round 3

scenario
definitions
round 6

United states Scenario PROJECTIONS

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

SCENARIO projections by state

Select a state:

ALABAMA

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Alaska

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

wisconsin

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

wyoming

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

ARIZONA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

arkansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

california

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

colorado

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

connecticut

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

delaware

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

district of columbia

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

florida

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

georgia

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

hawaii

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

idaho

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

illinois

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

indiana

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

iowa

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

kansas

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

kentucky

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

louisiana

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

maine

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

maryland

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

massachusetts

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

michigan

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

minnesota

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

mississippi

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

missouri

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

montana

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

nebraska

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

nevada

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

new hampshire

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

New Jersey

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

New mexico

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

New york

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

North carolina

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

north dakota

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

ohio

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

oklahoma

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Oregon

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Pennsylvania

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

rhode island

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

South Carolina

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

south Dakota

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Tennessee

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

texas

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Utah

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Vermont

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Virginia

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

washington

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

west virginia

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

ARIZONA

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

ARKANSAS

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with low transmissibility increase

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Variant with high transmissibility increase

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR

scenario
definitions
ROUND 4

United states Scenario PROJECTIONS

scenario a
Low vaccine hesitancy
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
Low vaccine hesitancy
Low NPI

Scenario C
High vaccine hesitancy
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
High vaccine hesitancy
Low NPI

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR

SCENARIO projections by state

Select a state:

ALABAMA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Alaska

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

ARIZONA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

arkansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

california

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

colorado

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

connecticut

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

delaware

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

district of columbia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

florida

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

georgia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

hawaii

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

idaho

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

illinois

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

indiana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

iowa

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

kansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

kentucky

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

louisiana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

maine

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

maryland

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

massachusetts

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

michigan

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

minnesota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

mississippi

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

missouri

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

montana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

nebraska

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

nevada

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

new hampshire

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

New Jersey

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

New mexico

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
low NPI

Scenario C
low vaccination
moderate NPI

Scenario D
low vaccination
low NPI

New york

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

North carolina

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

north dakota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

ohio

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

oklahoma

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Oregon

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Pennsylvania

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

rhode island

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

South Carolina

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

south Dakota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Tennessee

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

texas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Utah

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Vermont

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Virginia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

washington

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

west virginia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

wisconsin

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

wyoming

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR

scenario
definitions
ROUND 4

United states Scenario PROJECTIONS

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
‍Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR

SCENARIO projections by state

Select a state:

ALABAMA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Alaska

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

wyoming

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

ARIZONA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

arkansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

california

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

colorado

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

connecticut

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

delaware

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

district of columbia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

florida

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

georgia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

hawaii

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

idaho

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

illinois

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

indiana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

iowa

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

kansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

kentucky

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

louisiana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

maine

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

maryland

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

massachusetts

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

michigan

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

minnesota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

mississippi

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

missouri

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

montana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

nebraska

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

nevada

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

new hampshire

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

New Jersey

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

New mexico

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
low NPI

Scenario C
low vaccination
moderate NPI

Scenario D
low vaccination
low NPI

New york

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

North carolina

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

north dakota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

ohio

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

oklahoma

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Oregon

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Pennsylvania

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

rhode island

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

South Carolina

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

south Dakota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Tennessee

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

texas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Utah

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Vermont

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Virginia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

washington

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

west virginia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

wisconsin

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

arizona

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR

scenario
definitions
round 5

United states Scenario PROJECTIONS

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
‍Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

SCENARIO projections by state

Select a state:

ALABAMA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Alaska

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

maine

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

wyoming

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

ARIZONA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

arkansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

california

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

colorado

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

connecticut

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

delaware

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

district of columbia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

florida

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

georgia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

hawaii

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

idaho

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

illinois

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

indiana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

iowa

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

kansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

kentucky

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

louisiana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

wisconsin

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

maryland

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Arizona

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

michigan

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

minnesota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

mississippi

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

missouri

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

montana

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

nebraska

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

nevada

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

new hampshire

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

New Jersey

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

New mexico

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

New york

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

North carolina

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

north dakota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

ohio

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

oklahoma

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Oregon

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Pennsylvania

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

rhode island

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

South Carolina

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

south Dakota

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Tennessee

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

texas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Utah

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Vermont

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Virginia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

washington

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

west virginia

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

massachusetts

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

ARKANSAS

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR

scenario
definitions
round 8

United states Scenario PROJECTIONS

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

SCENARIO projections by state

ALABAMA

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Alaska

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

wisconsin

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

wyoming

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

ARIZONA

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

arkansas

scenario a
High vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario B
High vaccination
Low NPI

Scenario C
Low vaccination
Moderate NPI

Scenario D
Low vaccination
Low NPI

california

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

colorado

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

connecticut

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

delaware

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

district of columbia

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

florida

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

georgia

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

hawaii

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

idaho

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

illinois

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

indiana

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

iowa

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

kansas

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

kentucky

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

louisiana

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

maine

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

maryland

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

massachusetts

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

michigan

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

minnesota

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

mississippi

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

missouri

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

montana

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

nebraska

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

nevada

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

new hampshire

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

New Jersey

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

New mexico

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

New york

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

North carolina

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

north dakota

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

ohio

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

oklahoma

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Oregon

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Pennsylvania

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

rhode island

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

South Carolina

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

south Dakota

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Tennessee

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

texas

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Utah

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Vermont

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Virginia

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

washington

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

west virginia

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

ARIZONA

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

ARKANSAS

scenario a
No waning
High protection against infection

Scenario B
Fast waning of immunity
High protection against infection

Scenario C
Slow waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Scenario D
Fast waning of immunity
Low protection against infection

Figures show the median, the IQR and the 90%RR

About

To study the spatiotemporal spread of the flu, we use the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model (GLEAM), an individual-based, stochastic, and spatial epidemic model [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]. GLEAM uses real-world data to perform in-silico simulations of the spatial spread of infectious diseases at the global level. The data are aggregated to provide the estimates at the US state level. GLEAM generates an ensemble of possible epidemic projections described by the number of newly generated infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. The model is calibrated on weekly hospital admissions data from the US Department of Health and Human Services using an information theoretical approach.

Disclaimer: The presented material is based on modeling scenario assumptions informed by knowledge of the transmission of the influenza virus and subject to change as more data become available.

Acknowledgements: We acknowledge support from grant HHS/CDC 6U01IP001137, HHS/CDC 5U01IP0001137.

Team

Northeastern University/MOBS Lab
• Matteo Chinazzi
• Jessica T. Davis
• Kunpeng Mu
• Ana Pastore y Piontti
• Xinyue Xiong
• Alessandro Vespignani