The Flu Scenario Modeling Hub is an extension of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub. Currently, the Flu-SMH has produced 3 rounds that provide long-term, at least 6-months, projections of the current flu season in the United States. The scenario projections include estimates of the peak time, peak magnitude, and the weekly number of hospital admissions. The scenarios assume varying levels of vaccine efficacy and population immunity. Similar to the COVID-19 SMH, the Flu-SMH provides results based on ensembling the models from different teams.

Here we report the specific results of our modeling approach. The projections in this study are intended to bound plausible outbreak trajectories and should not be considered as forecasts of the most likely outcome. Considerable uncertainty is inherent when modeling the trajectory of COVID-19 over long timeframes because of deviations that may or may not be captured by the different scenarios (e.g., vaccine hesitancy, change human behavior).